Three Scenarios for Nigeria going into 2050

By the year 2050, Nigeria’s population will more than double its current size to reach 402 million, making Nigeria the third most populous country in the world. Also, in 2050, 67% will be below 35 years and about 62% will fall in the working age group. 

This growing population will create pressure on social amenities, infrastructure, food security, human capital and jobs. With these in mind, how prepared is Nigeria for this demographic emergency and what are the possible scenarios for Nigeria going into 2050? 

Wilson Erumebor presenting Three Scenarios for Nigeria at the NES#25

In developing the scenarios, some domestic & external factors will influence Nigeria’s direction towards 2050. The domestic factors include population growth, rabid urbanisation, climate change and unity & safety of Nigeria. On the external side, there is the advancement in innovation and technology, shift from traditional energy sources to renewable energy and increased globalisation. The interplay of these factors as well as our response as a nation will lead Nigeria to three scenarios in 2050. 

THE OUTCOMES 

Scenario 1- NIGERIA STAGNATES. In this scenario, Nigeria will neither improve significantly nor wither. Scenario 2- NIGERIA RISES. The economy booms, many Nigerians are lifted out of poverty. This is the Nigeria of our dreams. Scenario 3- NIGERIA FAILS. Nigerians go through hardship and the country heads towards disintegration. 

As Nigeria Stagnates, GDP grows by an average of 3.3% from 2020 – 2050. Nigeria is ranked as the 40th largest economy in the world in 2050. Unemployment rate reaches 49% in 2050. Poverty rate rises to 58% and life expectancy reaches 55 years.

As Nigeria Rises, GDP grows by 9.3% from 2020 to 2050. Nigeria is ranked as the 7th largest economy in the world after Japan. Unemployment rate falls to 7%; Poverty rate declines to 8% and life expectancy rises to 68 years. The industrial sector booms as Nigeria leverages technology.

As Nigeria Fails, it enters into a recession in 2021 and stays there for a long time. Unemployment increases from 21 million to 193 million – 75% unemployment rate. 80% of Nigerians are poor – that’s 321 million Nigerians. Imagine the implication on crime, theft, violence, kidnapping etc.

So how can we achieve the Nigeria Rises scenario? Well, first, is to have a long-term shared vision for our country, where we want Nigeria to be. Secondly, is to develop medium to short term plans to actualise our vision and lastly as a country, we must hold ourselves accountable to ensure implementation.

I am humbled to have presented the three scenarios for Nigeria in 2050 and hope that we all work together to build that Nigeria of our dreams.

Share
16 Comments
  • Great content! Super high-quality! Keep it up! 🙂

    February 16, 2020at07:58
  • Greetings! Very helpful advice in this particular post!
    It’s the little changes that make the greatest changes.
    Thanks a lot for sharing!

    March 16, 2020at04:26
  • Wow that was odd. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyways, just wanted to say wonderful blog!|

    March 31, 2020at15:54
  • I think the admin of this site is genuinely working hard in support of his site, as here every data is quality based stuff.|

    April 1, 2020at06:41
  • Excellent web site you have here.. It’s hard to find good quality writing like yours these days. I truly appreciate people like you! Take care!!|

    April 2, 2020at13:16
  • Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the ebook in it or something. I think that you just can do with some to power the message house a bit, however other than that, this is fantastic blog. A fantastic read. I’ll certainly be back.|

    April 2, 2020at15:43
  • Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He always kept preaching about this. I most certainly will forward this information to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Many thanks for sharing!|

    April 3, 2020at16:02
  • amazing artile

    April 5, 2020at02:59
  • Very quickly this site will be famous among all blogging and site-building people, due to it’s good content|

    April 8, 2020at02:42
  • i like your blog

    April 11, 2020at19:38
  • After going over a handful of the blog posts on your web page, I truly appreciate your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back in the near future. Please visit my website as well and tell me your opinion.|

    April 12, 2020at10:29
  • I feel this is one of the most significant info for me. And i’m happy reading your article. However should remark on few normal issues, The web site taste is ideal, the articles is really excellent : D. Just right task, cheers|

    April 13, 2020at18:45
  • April 13, 2020at19:49
  • very informative

    April 13, 2020at22:37
  • amazing article

    April 13, 2020at23:18
  • Pretty element of content. I simply stumbled upon your
    blog and in accession capital to say that I get in fact loved account your blog posts.
    Anyway I’ll be subscribing in your augment and even I
    achievement you get right of entry to constantly fast.

    April 14, 2020at08:50

Post a Reply to Anonymous Cancel Reply